Edun Defends N58.47 Trillion Budget Amid Warnings Over Unrealistic Projections
Nigeria's Finance Minister defends the 2026 budget assumptions before lawmakers as the revenue service chairman admits previous budgets failed due to unrealistic projections, raising questions about fiscal credibility.
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Nigeria's Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Dr. Olawale Edun, mounted a vigorous defence of the N58.47 trillion 2026 Appropriation Bill before the National Assembly on Tuesday, justifying key assumptions including oil price benchmarks and borrowing plans that will underpin Africa's largest economy next fiscal year.
The budget defence comes amid mounting concerns about fiscal realism after the Executive Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Zacch Adedeji, acknowledged that the Federal Government's 2024 and 2025 budgets failed to meet targets because projections were unrealistic. Speaking before the Senate Committee on Appropriations on Thursday, Adedeji admitted that overly optimistic revenue forecasts had undermined budget implementation, with the government only now releasing funds for the 2024 capital budget.
Budget Assumptions Under Parliamentary Scrutiny
Edun's appearance before lawmakers focused on defending the technical parameters that will determine whether the 2026 budget can be realistically implemented. According to The Nation Newspaper, the Finance Minister led a team to justify assumptions around oil production levels, benchmark crude prices, exchange rate projections, and the government's planned borrowing to finance the budget deficit.
The timing of the defence is particularly sensitive given Adedeji's concurrent admission about past budget failures. "The Federal Government's 2024 and 2025 budgets failed because the projections were unrealistic," Adedeji told the Senate Committee on Appropriations, according to The Whistler. This acknowledgment raises questions about whether the 2026 budget suffers from similar optimism bias that has plagued previous fiscal plans.
Nigeria's budget credibility has been undermined by a pattern of overstating oil revenue projections while underestimating the impact of fuel subsidy costs and exchange rate volatility. The country's fiscal framework relies heavily on crude oil sales, making accurate price and production forecasts critical to budget execution.
Global Financial Reform Push
Beyond domestic budget concerns, Edun has positioned Nigeria at the forefront of calls for reforming the global financial architecture to address a $5 trillion funding gap in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Finance Minister called for stronger unity among countries of the Global South to address rising debt burdens and limited access to affordable development financing, according to The Whistler.
The push for financial reforms reflects Nigeria's dual challenge of managing domestic fiscal pressures while advocating for systemic changes in how international financial institutions support developing economies. African nations have increasingly criticized the current system for imposing higher borrowing costs on the continent compared to developed economies, despite Africa's relatively lower debt-to-GDP ratios.
Edun's advocacy for Global South solidarity on financial reforms aligns with broader African Union positions on debt relief and concessional financing. However, the credibility of Nigeria's international advocacy depends partly on demonstrating sound fiscal management domestically, making the budget assumptions debate more than just a technical parliamentary exercise.
Fiscal Responsibility Concerns
The contrast between Edun's defence of the 2026 budget and Adedeji's admission about past failures highlights the delicate balance Nigeria must strike between ambitious development spending and fiscal sustainability. Parliamentary committees have grown increasingly skeptical of executive budget presentations following years of missed revenue targets and supplementary budgets that effectively rewrite fiscal plans mid-year.
The N58.47 trillion budget represents a significant increase from previous years, raising questions about the revenue measures needed to support such expansion without excessive borrowing. Nigeria's debt service costs have consumed an increasingly large share of government revenue, limiting funds available for capital projects and social services.
Lawmakers are expected to scrutinize the oil benchmark price assumption closely, given that crude price volatility has repeatedly derailed Nigerian budgets. The exchange rate projection will also face intense questioning, particularly as the naira has experienced significant depreciation despite central bank interventions.
As parliamentary review of the 2026 budget continues, the tension between Nigeria's development ambitions and fiscal constraints will remain central to debates. Whether the Tinubu administration can deliver a credible budget that avoids the pitfalls Adedeji identified in previous years will test both the technical competence of economic managers and the political will to make difficult fiscal choices.