ODM Factional War Escalates as Rival Camps Plan Competing Rallies in Western Kenya
Kenya's main opposition party faces deepening internal crisis as factions aligned with Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and party elder Oburu Oginga prepare simultaneous rallies in Siaya and Kakamega counties, with Governor James Orengo alleging state interference.
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Kenya's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is grappling with an unprecedented internal rupture as two rival factions prepare to hold competing rallies this weekend, exposing deep fissures within the country's largest opposition party and raising questions about its unity ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The confrontation between camps loyal to Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna and party elder Oburu Oginga has now extended to Siaya County, the political heartland of ODM leader Raila Odinga, according to Nairobi News. The dueling events—one planned for Siaya and another for Kakamega—represent the most visible manifestation of tensions that have been simmering within the party's leadership structure for months.
State Interference Allegations Surface
Siaya Governor James Orengo, a senior ODM figure and close ally of Raila Odinga, has accused the Kenyan government of plotting to disrupt Saturday's rally in Kakamega County. The allegations, reported by Nairobi News on February 21, add a new dimension to what was previously seen as purely internal party conflict. Orengo's claims suggest that the factional battle within ODM may have attracted external actors seeking to exploit the party's vulnerabilities.
The governor's intervention is particularly significant given his stature within the party and his position as a constitutional lawyer who has historically defended democratic processes. His decision to publicly allege state interference indicates the seriousness with which the Sifuna-aligned faction views the current crisis and suggests concerns that the divisions could be weaponized by political opponents.
Sifuna's Rising Profile Fuels Tensions
At the center of the conflict stands Edwin Sifuna, whose transformation from party administrator to political icon has reshaped ODM's internal dynamics. Nairobi News described the secretary-general as having evolved "from insider to icon" and characterized him as a "symbol shaking Kenyan politics." This rising profile appears to have created friction with established party elders, including Oburu Oginga, the older brother of Raila Odinga and a long-serving figure in Kenyan opposition politics.
Sifuna's appeal stems partly from his willingness to challenge the government publicly and his effective use of social media to mobilize younger voters—a demographic crucial to ODM's electoral prospects. However, this approach has reportedly unsettled some party veterans who favor more traditional political engagement and fear that Sifuna's confrontational style could alienate potential coalition partners or provoke government retaliation.
Strategic Implications for 2027
The timing of this factional warfare poses significant risks for ODM as Kenya approaches the 2027 electoral cycle. The party's ability to present a united front will be critical to mounting an effective challenge to President William Ruto's administration. The competing rallies in Siaya and Kakamega—both counties with strong ODM support bases—risk confusing party faithful and creating parallel power structures that could prove difficult to reconcile.
Political analysts note that similar factional disputes have historically weakened opposition parties in Kenya, allowing the ruling coalition to exploit divisions through targeted defections and resource allocation. The public nature of the current ODM conflict provides the government with valuable intelligence about the party's internal fault lines and potential vulnerabilities.
The choice of Siaya as a battleground is particularly symbolic, as the county represents Raila Odinga's ancestral home and has been an ODM stronghold since the party's formation in 2005. That rival factions would choose to contest for supremacy in this heartland suggests that the dispute goes beyond personality clashes to fundamental questions about the party's direction and leadership succession.
As the weekend rallies approach, ODM faces a critical test of its institutional resilience. The party's ability to manage this crisis—or its failure to do so—will likely shape not only its internal governance structures but also its credibility as a viable alternative to the current administration. With Raila Odinga yet to publicly address the factional tensions, observers are watching closely to see whether the party patriarch will intervene to broker peace or allow the competing camps to settle their differences through a show of grassroots support.